David Myatt, London Business School

"A Rational Choice Theory of Voter Turnout"

Abstract

I consider a two-candidate election in which there is aggregate uncertainty about the popularities of the candidates, where voting is costly, and where voters are instrumentally motivated. The unique equilibrium predicts substantial turnout under reasonable conditions, and greater turnout for the apparent underdog helps to offset the expected advantage of the perceived leader.

I also present predictions about the response of turnout and the election outcome to various parameters, including the importance of the election; the cost of voting; the perceived popularity of each candidate; and the accuracy of pre-election information sources, such as opinion polls.

Contact person: Thomas Jensen