Vulnerability to Natural Shocks: Assessing the Short-Term Impact on Consumption and Poverty of the 2015 Flood in Mozambique
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Vulnerability to Natural Shocks : Assessing the Short-Term Impact on Consumption and Poverty of the 2015 Flood in Mozambique. / Salvucci, Vincenzo; Santos, Ricardo.
In: Ecological Economics, Vol. 176, 106713, 10.2020.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Vulnerability to Natural Shocks
T2 - Assessing the Short-Term Impact on Consumption and Poverty of the 2015 Flood in Mozambique
AU - Salvucci, Vincenzo
AU - Santos, Ricardo
PY - 2020/10
Y1 - 2020/10
N2 - Mozambique is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. A bigger than usual, and mostly unexpected, flood occurred in the central-northern region of the country in the first few months of 2015, causing huge damage to infrastructures. In this paper, we use a nationally representative household budget survey that was being carried out in the field during those months to assess the short-term impact of the 2015 flooding on household consumption and poverty levels. Applying a difference-in-difference approach, we find that, for those exposed to the flood, consumption reduced significantly in the short term, in the range of 11-17%, depending on the specification, on the estimation procedure implemented or on the subsample of households selected. Poorer households, and especially households living in rural areas, seem to have been affected significantly more. Poverty levels also increased due to the flood, by about 6 percentage points. These results are relevant for policy planning and natural disaster management, as well as for ex-ante vulnerability assessment in Mozambique and other risk-prone developing countries with similar characteristics.
AB - Mozambique is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. A bigger than usual, and mostly unexpected, flood occurred in the central-northern region of the country in the first few months of 2015, causing huge damage to infrastructures. In this paper, we use a nationally representative household budget survey that was being carried out in the field during those months to assess the short-term impact of the 2015 flooding on household consumption and poverty levels. Applying a difference-in-difference approach, we find that, for those exposed to the flood, consumption reduced significantly in the short term, in the range of 11-17%, depending on the specification, on the estimation procedure implemented or on the subsample of households selected. Poorer households, and especially households living in rural areas, seem to have been affected significantly more. Poverty levels also increased due to the flood, by about 6 percentage points. These results are relevant for policy planning and natural disaster management, as well as for ex-ante vulnerability assessment in Mozambique and other risk-prone developing countries with similar characteristics.
KW - Welfare Impacts of Natural Shocks
KW - Flood
KW - Difference-in-Difference
KW - Mozambique
KW - CHANGING FOOD-PRICES
KW - EARLY-CHILDHOOD
KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE
KW - RURAL WELFARE
KW - DISASTERS
KW - RISK
KW - CHALLENGES
KW - ADAPTATION
KW - DYNAMICS
KW - DROUGHT
U2 - 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106713
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106713
M3 - Journal article
VL - 176
JO - Ecological Economics
JF - Ecological Economics
SN - 0921-8009
M1 - 106713
ER -
ID: 255346642